¿Por qué a RUSIA NO le INTERESA invadir UCRANIA? – VisualPolitik


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Could the United States be
wishing Russia would invade Ukraine? This video has been made possible thanks to
Cambly, a platform to practice English individually with
specialized native tutors. Moscow has castled. Troops, tanks,
missiles and warships from all military districts of the country have
been deployed along the Ukrainian border. Everything seems ready for a great offensive. The reason? Supposedly counteract
the growing weight of NATO in the region. But…. And if the result of this operation were
exactly the opposite of what Moscow intended. Dear friends, I am quite
sure that all of you have heard a lot about the conflict between Russia,
Ukraine, the United States and the European Union. However, you may not have asked yourselves a
fundamental question: Could the United States be wishing that
the Russian invasion of Ukraine would finally happen? No, I assure you that we have not lost our minds. In this video we are going to take a look at the 4 big reasons
why Russia's invasion of Ukraine could be a huge mistake.

The great
trap facing Vladimir Putin. attentive. [But wait. Before continuing, I want to
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the strengths that Russia has, so don't forget to subscribe to
VisualPolitik and hit the bell.

And now, let's get started. (1. THE UKRAINIAN HORNET'S HATCH) Dear friends, the Republic of Ukraine
is not exactly a small country. With more than 600,000 square kilometers
and some 40 million inhabitants, a full-scale Russian invasion
would be tremendously expensive. And I am not referring only to the cost of the
invasion but above all to the occupation. I explain. Everything indicates that the
Ukrainian army would not have much to do against the Russian troops. By number of troops,
by arsenal or by experience in combat, the more than 120 thousand soldiers with which
the Kremlin has surrounded Ukraine seem to have everything to accomplish the mission successfully. C1("You have a Ukrainian land army
that has become much better, much more capable.

"But the Russians would
own the air and the sea." Philip Breedlove, retired US Air Force General
) Sure, wait , because
the difference in forces was always much greater in Afghanistan
and despite this both the Soviet Union and the United States
itself faced an endless war. Well, something like that could happen in Ukraine. (First the invasion could lead to a significant wear and many
casualties for the Russian troops. Let us not forget that under the
Poroshenko and Zelensky governments, the Ukrainian army has improved considerably;
more than 400 thousand people have gained combat experience and the United
States and the rest of NATO countries they have supplied a large number
of anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles. Along these lines, on January 1,
the Law of National Resistance entered into force, which has the objective of mobilize 120 thousand reservists,
many of them with combat experience, to support the more than 200 thousand troops
that the Ukrainian army has today.) Of course, it goes without saying that any failure on the front could be disastrous for
the political regime of Vladimir Putin.

Second, the post-invasion occupation
could deplete both the coffers and the Russian military's own forces. Because let's be
clear, any attempt to occupy the country would entail strong resistance
and a lot of activity from insurgent groups. C2 ("Everyone buys weapons to fight
against the Russians. We have many clubs where people go to train every day." Miroslav
Gai, ex-combatant on the Donbass front) Movements that, furthermore, do not hesitate
a single bit second, they would be funded, trained, and supported by NATO itself.
The goal would always be to maximize the economic, military, and political cost
to Russia of an invasion .

(US considers backing insurgency
if Russia invades Ukraine. NYTimes) C3 ( "The sad reality is that Russia can take as
much of Ukraine as it wants, but it cannot put up with it" Melinda Haring, Deputy Director
of the Atlantic Council's Eurasia Center) And all this, I insist,
assuming that during the invasion the Russians did not suffer any complications. Obviously, the greater the objective
of the invasion, the greater the risks. Of course, the possibility of
getting into a whole hornet 's nest is only one of the risks that
this operation poses for to Russia. attentive. S (2. WHY UNLEASH A
RACE YOU CAN'T WIN?) Pay close attention to these words from Jens Stoltenberg
, NATO Secretary General himself. C4("If Russia intended to
get less NATO near its border, it has achieved the exact opposite. And
if they use force against Ukraine again, they will get even more NATO on their borders. Jens
Stoltenberg, Secretary General of NATO) Until now, the excuse that the Kremlin has used over and
over again to threaten Ukraine's sovereignty has been that of wanting to stop
NATO's expansion on the eastern front, well, the result of an invasion can
be exactly the opposite for 3 reasons.

First, the invasion of Ukraine may
cause at least two new countries, Sweden and Finland, to guarantee their
security, to end up joining the North Atlantic Treaty to guarantee their security. At a
minimum, the cooperation of these two countries with NATO would be reinforced, which, by the
way, is precisely what they have been doing in recent years as
we have seen a more aggressive Russia C5 (“Sweden and Finland have inc increased
bilateral cooperation with the United States […] Sweden became aware of the
threat from Moscow on Good Friday 2013, when Russian military aircraft simulated
a large-scale bombing operation over Stockholm.” William
Alberque, Director of Strategy, Technology and Arms Control at the
International Institute for Strategic Studies.) Secondly, a military operation in
Ukraine would bring the majority of NATO members together again, especially
the countries of the center and the Eastern Europe who would unhesitatingly embrace Washington
and the Atlantic security project. It would be, so to speak, the way to
get the Alliance back in shape. Dear friends, we can say that Putin would be to
NATO what spinach is to Popeye. And thirdly, perhaps the most
important question of all. The invasion of Ukraine would very likely end up unleashing a huge
arms race in the new iron curtain that is forming in Eastern Europe.
A race that Russia cannot win.

European countries have much richer economies
and access to more advanced technology. So if 30 years ago the Soviet Union
fell exhausted after a huge military race with the United States, now the same
situation can be reproduced again. For now, countries like Poland, Estonia
and Sweden have already announced record military budgets to rebuild and
upgrade their armed forces. With an invasion you could expect pretty much the same
from the vast majority of countries in Europe. (Sweden to increase
defense spending by 40% amid fears of Russia.

Forbes) (Poland plans to beef up army
amid threats from Belarus and Russia The Polish military has announced plans to
more than double its troop numbers. DW ) (The Estonian defense budget
for 2022 will be the largest in history. Shephard Media)

And these are just 3 examples. Add to all this a greater
deployment of troops and equipment from countries such as the United States or the United Kingdom. In other words, Putin can achieve what
Washington hasn't achieved in a lot of years: get Europe's military budgets above
2% of GDP.

In other words, if
Putin's purpose was to stop NATO, the result of an invasion
would be exactly the opposite. And, you know what? We have only
just begun. The potential losses for Russia do not end here by any means. attentive. (3. THE GREAT RUSSIAN BAZA THAT CAN DISAPPEAR ) With the gas we have run into! Friends, During the Cold War, the Soviet
Union did not stop selling gas to Europe, including Western Europe. The sale of gas has been an important source
of foreign exchange for Russia during the last decades. (Perhaps precisely because of its status as
a reliable and cheap supplier, European countries have not had much trouble
increasing their dependence on Russian gas to record levels. Approximately a third of all
the gas consumed in Europe comes from Russia.) However, now that could start to change. Reductions in the supply
and use of gas for political purposes could spell the end of
European complacency. Especially if after a Russian invasion of Ukraine
the tension between the two parties intensifies. And be careful, because this has been an old desire
of the United States, which does not even remotely want its NATO allies to
be energy hostages of Moscow.

[Also, don't forget, the United States aspires
to become a major exporter of Liquefied Natural Gas. Gas that could partially
supply imports from Russia] C6 ("We are collaborating with governments and
market operators in supplying additional volumes of natural gas
to Europe from various sources around the world" Joint statement by
Joe Biden and Ursula von der Leyen.) In this way, the automatic consequence
of an invasion could be the cancellation of Nord Stream 2 and the
urgent search for alternative sources. Perhaps more expensive sources but much
better in terms of security. Along these same lines, for example, countries such
as Poland or Estonia have already confirmed that they want to build new nuclear power plants. So, in the medium term, if
European economies are serious about looking for alternatives to gas from Russia,
even if only partially, the blow to the Russian economy would be
quite simply devastating. Keep in mind that oil and
gas account for two-thirds of all Russian exports and
about half of the federal budget. In that situation, Russia would have
no choice but to make huge investments to sell gas at rock-bottom
prices to the Chinese.

In other words, the invasion could
end up eroding one of the great political – and economic – strengths
that Russia has today. In 10 years the energy situation in Europe could be
very, very different from today. And, by the way, speaking of
economic impact. Beware of the fourth big reason why the invasion of
Ukraine could be a colossal mistake. SANCTIONS, SANCTIONS AND MORE SANCTIONS) On this occasion the diplomatic game
is developing basically like this: Moscow threatens to invade Ukraine, and then the
response from Washington and the rest of European capitals is to threaten more and more
economic sanctions.

And start again. Which, on the other hand, is nothing new. (Since Russia annexed Crimea, the
international community has punished Vladimir Putin's country with a lot of sanctions. Basically of 3 types:
financial sanctions, sanctions against oligarchs close to the Kremlin and
some restrictions on the purchase of technology. This is a strategy
launched by Barack Obama and later expanded by Donald Trump and Joe Biden.) There is some debate about the
effectiveness of the sanctions with which Russia has been punished so far. However, the truth is that since
the sanctions were put in place, the Russian economy has gone from bad to worse.

Since 2014 it
has barely grown at an average of 0.3% per year. And yes, I know what many of you are thinking.
Man Enrique, it is that this time coincided with the collapse of the price of oil. Yes,
but it's not just about economic growth. (Since the sanctions against the Russian economy were approved,
the inflow of foreign direct investment has plummeted to less than half. To give
you an idea, this means that between 2014 and 2019, for example, Russia lost about 169 thousand
million dollars in productive investment. And that's not all. Add to this the fact that the
capital markets were largely closed, both for the government and especially
for Russian companies, and the result is that both investment levels
and productivity have gone from bad to worse. Among other things, this is what
explains why during these years the disposable income of
Russians has plummeted more than 10% and why the exchange rate of the ruble
with the dollar fell more of 50%.) But, do you want a
concrete example? Well look.

Indonesia, Algeria and Egypt have just given
up buying the Sukhoi SU-35S, one of the jewels of Russian military aviation and one of the
key elements of the country's military catalogue. But, the question is, why
are they canceling the orders? Well, precisely because, due to
sanctions, Russia cannot import vital components for the avionics and radar of this plane
, which considerably affects its capabilities. Despite everything, the sanctions that have been established
so far have been rather modest. What could now change.

The package of sanctions that the
United States and the European Union would be considering if Russia finally invades
Ukraine goes much further. For example, there is talk of major
export controls, of removing Russian banks from the international
banking communication system – the Swift system -, of completely cutting off financing to
banks and the Russian government or even, among many others, of measures
as aggressive as this: N5 (Biden threatens to ban
Russian banks from the dollar. The United States said it could
prevent Russian financial institutions from trading in
dollars if Moscow invades Ukraine.) That is, it would not only be about damaging the
Russian economy but above all to prevent its development.

And, this is important, because
, friends, let's not fool ourselves: in the long term, a country with fewer resources is
a country condemned to be much less powerful. In Washington they know it and this may be
the perfect opportunity to do it. C8("It would be a disaster, a nightmare
for the domestic financial market." Sergey Aleksashenko, former
First Vice President of the Central Bank of Russia ) For now, international companies
that were considering investing in Russia have frozen or canceled these projects, the stock market
Moscow has fallen sharply and the risk premium They are, so to speak, the first consequences
of the risky bet that Moscow has made. C7 (“Putin has overplayed his
game with Ukraine.” Robert Gates, Former United States Secretary of Defense)
Now, does all this mean that there will be no invasion? Not at all. The
diplomatic strategy followed by the United States and NATO has somehow cornered
Putin, who will only have 3 options: Withdraw humiliated. Agree an agreement that can sell but without getting anything outstanding and
making concessions to the West.

Or invade Ukraine. Possibly through a
partial invasion, as we have told you in The Keys of the Week, the newsletter that
all of you who support us on Patreon receive. In this case, the consequences may have been
gradual depending on how big the invasion was. That is surely being
the calculation that they are making in Moscow. Even Russian action could be limited
to recognizing the independence of the territories controlled by
pro-Russian forces in Donbass. After all, if Putin had
wanted to invade Ukraine, he would normally have already done so. Russian troops
have been stationed at the front for months. There is no point in waiting for
your opponents to strengthen their defenses. And be careful, because this is, for example, the
idea defended by the Ukrainian government itself, which over and over again states that
they do not see anywhere a real risk that Russia will carry
out a major invasion of the country. Be that as it may, everything seems to indicate that
this time Washington is willing to play hard.

Putin, a leader accustomed
to taking long shots, might have overestimated his chances
of victory in this whole mess this time. Now the result is that whatever Moscow does,
in almost all scenarios the most likely winner is precisely the United States. A country
that has nothing to lose and much to gain in all this history. This, my friends, may be the
big trap that Vladimir Putin is facing. But with that said, it's your turn: do you
think Putin has overestimated his strength or do you think he will get away with it in the end
? What do you think Russia can gain by invading Ukraine? What
should NATO's response be? Leave us your opinions here and
let's open a debate.

And now, if you found this video interesting, don't forget
to like it and subscribe to VisualPolitik. Thank you very much for being there , Greetings and until next time..


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